Monday, June 13, 2011


The Guardian (hey when it isn't writing about Israel, I can read it!) has a disturbing predicitions/analysis regarding Turkey and Syria. According to the Guardian one of the possibilities is that Turkey might invade Syria to establish a "safe zone". What might lead to such a move?
Yassin-Kassab said: "Turkish military intervention remains unlikely but if the estimated 4,000 refugees who have crossed the border thus far swell to a greater flood, particularly if Kurds begin crossing in large numbers, Turkey may decide to create a safe haven in north or north-eastern Syria.

If I read that paregraph correctly, what Turkey does not want is more Kurds. They would be willing to go to war with another state, just to make sure that Syria's Kurds, stay in Syria. The bottom line is that it would not be humanitarian concerns that would prompt Turkey into action, but rather domestic concerns.

 At the moment I am fairly confident that Turkey has no plans to do anything - Mostly because Debka reported that they were invading syria a few days ago. Experience has shown that what Debka predicts/reports just never ever ever happens (or we would have all died long ago). However if the last few months have taught us anything - it is that the Middle East is totally unpredictable.
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