The most immediate impact of the deal will likely be decreased influence by the ultraorthodox Haredim. Netanyahu apparently realized that his previous coalition would not survive a rewrite of the Tal Law. The new coalition's configuration means that three secular parties -- Likud, Kadima, and Yisrael Beitenu -- will now have 70 of the 94 coalition seats. Yet the Likud Central Committee has many religious (albeit not Haredi) members, and the party garners many religious votes. Despite its differences with the Haredim, Likud may press for a more gradualist focus on civilian national service programs that could mitigate the shock to the ultraorthodox community.
Makovsky is wrong. The National religious public is very much against Haredim not serving in the army. Perhaps, even more than the general public. The source for this is twofold:
1. A feeling by the religious Zionists that Haredim are creating a bad name for the Jewish religion.
2. The RZ are incredibly idealistic, and hence get offended by the Haredim not agreeing with them even more than the non religious.
However, as I've previously argued - the Religious Zionists are ignoring the fact that once the Haredim are made to serve, some people may start asking why the ultra idealistic and nationalist Religious Zionists are not serving a full three years.